Villanova visits West Virginia in Big East showdown
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
02/08/2010 - Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off their first Big East Conference loss of the season, the Villanova Wildcats will attempt to get back on track in Morgantown against the West Virginia Mountaineers this evening.
Villanova dropped a 103-90 decision at Georgetown on Saturday in a game that was never really close. That setback halted an 11-game win streak for the Wildcats, who are now 20-2 overall and 9-1 in league action. They had recorded four consecutive double-digit triumphs prior to Saturday's loss.
As for West Virginia, it has quietly put together a six-game win streak to move to 19-3 overall and 8-2 in conference. The club has posted back-to-back 19-point victories, including Saturday's 79-60 decision over St. John's. Expect the Mountaineers to play with a wealth of confidence this evening, as they are 9-1 at home this season.
Although Villanova holds a 20-18 edge over WVU in the all-time series, the Mountaineers have won four of the last five meetings.
Villanova trailed Georgetown by 19 points at intermission on Saturday after allowing the Hoyas to shoot 55.6 percent from the floor in the first half, including 8-of-13 from three-point range. Rather than make adjustments and improve in the second half, the Wildcats permitted an even higher shooting percentage over the final 20 minutes. Villanova turned the ball over 18 times in the tilt and was outscored 39-17 from the foul line. Both Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher scored 24 points in defeat, and Corey Stokes added 10 points. Through 22 games, Reynolds is averaging 18.7 ppg on the strength of his 40.5 percent efficiency from three-point range. Fisher checks in with 13.7 ppg, and Antonio Pena adds 11.0 ppg and 7.4 rpg. The Wildcats are generating 85.2 ppg while limiting opponents to 72.0 ppg on 40.5 percent shooting.
There are four double-digit scorers in the fold for West Virginia, and Da'Sean Butler leads the pack with 17.3 ppg. More than just a scorer, Butler also brings 6.2 rpg and 74 assists to the lineup. Kevin Jones provides 14.2 ppg and 7.6 rpg for WVU, which is getting 11.1 ppg and 8.7 rpg from Devin Ebanks. Darryl Bryant rounds out the foursome with 10.3 ppg and 76 assists for a Mountaineer squad that is netting 73.8 ppg while holding opponents to 61.5 ppg. Rebounding has clearly been a strength for the team, as it is ripping down 8.0 rpg more than foes. Butler was sensational against St. John's over the weekend, as he exploded for 33 points on the strength of a 7-of-7 effort from three-point range. The Mountaineers connected on only 25 percent of their total shots in the first half and trailed by 11 points at intermission. Fortunately, the team shot 65.5 percent in the second half, including 8-of-8 from behind the arc, and made good on all 11 free throws to claim the win.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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